LGBT outlet Xtra’s columnist challenges reports of a sharp decline in queer US teens
James Factora, a writer for Canadian LGBT outlet Xtra, challenged claims of a sharp decline in queer US teenagers on October 22, 2026. In an opinion column, he suggested that fewer students identifying as lesbian, gay or bisexual could reflect both changes in self-identification and caution about answering government surveys.
The debate followed an analysis by San Diego State University psychology professor Jean Twenge, published on September 28. Her calculations using the school-based YRBS survey put LGB identification among ninth-graders, typically aged 14–15, at 17% in 2023 and 11% in 2025. The change among twelfth-graders was smaller: from 18% to 16%.
Twenge calculated these percentages only among students choosing heterosexual, gay or lesbian, or bisexual, excluding other identities, those who were unsure and those who did not understand the question. This measures sexual self-identification, rather than the entire LGBT group. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) explains that a transgender identity question included in 2023 was removed in 2025.
Twenge also reported a decline in the proportion of sexually active schoolgirls reporting same-sex contact. She acknowledged, however, that complete 2025 data showed no similar decline in identification among adults aged 18–24. She said the reasons for the changes among younger teenagers were unknown.
An alternative analysis by the Outsourced newsletter examined female students of all ages who reported sexual contact with both males and females. Within this subgroup, lesbian identification rose from 2.4% in 2021 to 6.1% in 2025. However, the 2025 sample contained 271 such observations, and the difference was not tested for statistical significance. This calculation describes a separate subgroup.
Factora linked possible caution in responses to the political climate surrounding LGBT people in the US. The comparisons do not establish the effect of that factor. According to the CDC, YRBS participation is voluntary and anonymous, and no information identifying individual students is collected.
The CDC also explains that the national sample is drawn independently of state and local school district surveys. A state’s lack of its own survey therefore does not automatically exclude its students from the national study. Each cycle draws a new sample: the survey does not track changes in the same teenagers’ identities.
Urania previously reported on the initial coverage of declining LGB identification among US students in these data.
