India's Condom Shortage Amid US-Iran War Threatens to Spike HIV Rates

Maritime trade disruptions caused by the US-Iran war have led to a condom shortage in India. Retail prices have surged by up to 50%. Activists warn that the crisis could exacerbate the risks of HIV transmission in the country.

The conflict around the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted the supply of raw materials for the Indian condom industry, which is valued at $1 billion. Production relies on imported silicone oil (used as a lubricant) and ammonia (which stabilizes raw latex). India purchases about 86% of its anhydrous ammonia from West Asian countries — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman. Ammonia prices are expected to rise by 40–50%. Additional pressure on manufacturers comes from the shortage and rising costs of packaging materials, including aluminum foil and PVC film. As a result, the Indian condom market model, built on high volumes and low margins, is under threat.

India has the world’s second-largest population of people living with HIV — around 2.5 million people (as of 2024). From 2010 to 2024, the country nearly halved the number of new infections and reduced AIDS-related deaths by over 80%. According to Indian LGBT activist Ankit Bhuptani, this progress depended on affordable condoms and educational programs for men who have sex with men and transgender people.

According to a government report, 5.4% of new HIV cases in 2024–2025 were linked to transmission between men. Bhuptani noted in a comment to the Washington Blade that the shortage arose just as the LGBT community began seeking medical care more frequently following the 2018 repeal of Section 377, which criminalized same-sex relations. The activist fears that the sharp price increase will force people to use low-quality alternatives, and the decline in condom use will lead to a spike in infections in two to three years.

The situation is compounded by funding cuts from international donors like USAID. Although the Indian government increased the budget of the National AIDS Control Organization for 2026–2027 to $249 million, activists consider these measures insufficient.

In March, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry launched a $51.5 million export credit insurance program to offset war-related losses. However, human rights defenders are demanding intervention in the domestic market. LGBT activist Harish Iyer urged the government to abolish taxes on condoms and distribute them for free, citing the national family planning program Nirodh, which has been active since 1968.

“Condoms are not for pleasure, they are for life,” Iyer stated. “They should be considered essential goods. A crisis in this industry will hit the LGBT community and create a long-term burden on the economy.”

Manforce, one of India’s largest condom manufacturers, declined to comment on the situation to the press.